Objectives:
the identification of political-military determinants of the full-scale phase of the war in Ukraine which has been going on since 2014. The said goal shall be achieved by analyzing the boundary conditions of the Russian security policy against the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the geostrategic conditioning of the Republic of Belarus.

Methods:
the following techniques have been implemented in the article: qualitative analysis and critical analysis of the source literature, synthesis – cause and effect associations. The statistical method has also been used. The empirical methods include abstract modelling for the construction of simplified models of the description of reality with reference to the object of analysis.

Results:
the three goals mentioned beforehand have been achieved in the article through (1) showing the main strategic and operational assumptions of the Russian Federation with regard to its national security policy, (2) the role of incorporated Belarus in the military operation being carried out, (3) the estimation of the main assumptions of the military campaign.

Conclusions:
the neo-imperial policy carried out by the Russian Federation towards the neighboring countries is the main determinant of the warfare in Ukraine. Russian willingness to reestablish the regional order in Central and Eastern Europe determines the next phase of the military campaign. Over the past years, Belarus has been gradually integrated as a Union Member State. It may be assumed that Belarus will become a subjugated country of Russia – which increases the possibility of Belarus being involved in military conflicts carried by the Russian Federation.