Possible methods and approaches for verification of undeclared and decommissioned sites for verifying nuclear disarmament, the reasons to employ them, and the dissemination of findings
 
More details
Hide details
1
Doctoral School of Military Sciences, National University of Public Service, Hungary
 
2
Operations Directorate, Arms Control Branch, Hungarian Defence Forces Command, Hungary
 
 
Submission date: 2021-07-26
 
 
Acceptance date: 2022-03-21
 
 
Publication date: 2022-03-25
 
 
Corresponding author
Mihail Istvanovics Várdai   

Doctoral School of Military Sciences, National University of Public Service, Hungary
 
 
Przegląd Nauk o Obronności 2021;(11):89-113
 
KEYWORDS
ABSTRACT
Objectives:
The future verification of the nuclear disarmament poses different challenges. The International Partnership for Nuclear Disarmament Verification is working on these challenges. The verification methods and approaches are very different so they can greatly influence the outcome of the inspection activities.

Methods:
These methods and approaches can be identified in other, already functioning arms control arrangements and confidence and security building measures. The methods and approaches have their advantages and disadvantages, so the planning of different verification activities have to take into account these aspects.

Results:
The future nuclear disarmament verification can be achieved by combining the methods of verification. The availability of technology also can contribute for verification of nuclear disarmament without entering sensitive areas, thus the states can comply with the provisions of the Non-proliferation Treaty. The use of different sensors for verification can complement the on-site inspection activities by providing for the inspectors data on the outline of specific site. After the certification of the sensors, states can use those under specific information barriers. The recording of findings of a verification activity also important for planning future inspection missions, and in case of non-compliance they can be used as factual evidence in different negotiations.

Conclusions:
For this purpose the network maintained by the Organization of Security and Cooperation in Europe can be viewed as a model that ensures the confidentiality of the notifications.

REFERENCES (26)
1.
Aftergood S. (2021) ‘“National Technical Means” Leaves the Lexicon.’ Federation of American Scientists. https://fas.org/blogs/secrecy/....
 
2.
Buzhinskiy Ye. (2020) Mozhet li sushchestvovat' sistema kontrolya nad vooruzheniyami, opirayushchayasya tol'ko na natsional'nyye tekhnicheskiye sredstva kontrolya? Indeks Bezopasnosti 2 (6). Verifikatsiya kontrolya nad yadernymi vooruzheniyami i yadernogo razoruzheniya: opyt, perspektivy i novyye idei, Red. A.F. Zul'kharneyev. M.: PIR-Tsentr; «Trialog».
 
3.
Glaser A., Niemeyer I. (2021) ‘Nuclear Monitoring and Verification Without Onsite Access’, in: Göttsche M., Glaser A. (ed) Toward Nuclear Disarmament Building up Transparency and Verification, Federal Foreign Office. Division Nuclear Disarmament, Arms Control, Non-Proliferation (OR09), Berlin, pp. 86-115.
 
4.
Goldblat J. (2002) Arms Control: The new guide to negotiations and agreements: Fully revised and updated second edition with new CD-ROM documentation supplement. International Peace Research Institute. Oslo & Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Stockholm.
 
5.
Gottemoeller R., Marvin D. (2021) Reimagining the Open Skies Treaty: cooperative aerial monitoring. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. <https://thebulletin.org/2021/0...>.
 
6.
Lindenbaum D. et al. (2019) The Rise of Augmented Analysis: Defining Levels of Automation for Machine Learning Applied to Geospatial Intelligence, in 2019 State and Future of GEOINT Report, The United States Geospatial Intelligence Foundation, pp. 15-17.
 
7.
Niemeyer I. (2009) ‘Perspectives of Satellite Imagery Analysis for Verifying the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty’, in: Nussbaum S. et al. (ed.) International Safeguards and Satellite Imagery Key Features of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Computer-Based Analysis. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, pp. 35-44. doi: 10.1007/978-3-540-79132-4.
 
8.
Nussbaum S., Niemeyer I. (2009) ‘Detection of Changes in Images’, in: Nussbaum S. et al. (ed.) International Safeguards and Satellite Imagery Key Features of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Computer-Based Analysis Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg pp. 144-167. doi 10.1007/978-3-540-79132-4.
 
9.
Ulrich P., Bidwell Ch. et.al. (2019) Public and National Technical Means in the Digital Age, in: 2019 State and Future of GEOINT Report. The United States Geospatial Intelligence Foundation.
 
10.
Várdai M. Istvanovics S. (2021) A világűr militarizálásának kérdéseiről, Honvédségi Szemle, 149, pp 34-50. doi: 10.35926/HSZ.2021.1.3.
 
11.
Savel'yev A. (2020) Kak SSSR i SSHA podkhodili k verifikatsii kontrolya na vooruzheniyami v godi kholodnoy voyny. Indeks Bezopasnosti 2 (6). Verifikatsiya kontrolya nad yadernymi vooruzheniyami i yadernogo razoruzheniya: opyt, perspektivy i novyye idei, Red. A.F. Zul'kharneyev. M.: PIR-Tsentr; «Trialog».
 
12.
IPNDV Working Group 1: Deliverable One A Framework Document with Terms and Definitions, Principles, and Good Practices, http://ipndv.org/wp-content/up... (access: 01 APR 2021).
 
13.
IPNDV Working Group 2: Deliverables Four, Five, and Six 2016–2017 Output Report: Inspection Activities and Techniques, http://ipndv.org/wp-content/up... (access: 01 APR 2021).
 
14.
IPNDV Working Group 4: Verification of Nuclear Weapons Declarations, https://www.ipndv.org/wp-conte... (access: 01 APR 2021).
 
15.
IPNDV Working Group 5: Verification of Each of the 14 Steps of Nuclear Weapon Dismantlement, https://www.ipndv.org/wp-conte... (access: 01 APR 2021).
 
16.
Nuclear Threat Initiative Glossary https://www.nti.org/learn/glos..., (access: 24 June 2021).
 
17.
Aeronautical Information Publication of Hungary.
 
18.
Interim Agreement Between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on Certain Measures with Respect to the Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (SALT I).
 
19.
Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe.
 
20.
Treaty on Open Skies.
 
21.
Treaty Between The United States Of America And The Russian Federation On Measures For The Further Reduction And Limitation Of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START).
 
22.
Vienna Document 2011 on Confidence and Security Building Measures.
 
23.
OSCC/I/Dec.1/10 December 1992.
 
24.
OSCC/I/Dec.5/29 June 1992.
 
25.
OSCC/VI/Dec.18/12 October 1994.
 
26.
FM 3-14 Army Space Operations, October 2019, Headquarters, Department of the Army, Washington, DC.
 
eISSN:2719-6763
ISSN:2450-6869
Journals System - logo
Scroll to top